Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49d5…2e07 sports 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,266 (+4%) realized +$8,536 · open +$730
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%115W / 140L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$933per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$2,101
14 days+$2,101
30 days+$2,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$6,053
sports 16% +$366
other 14% +$14,185
politics 12% −$5,496
tech 8% −$5,075
world 3% +$823
economics 0% −$944
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +69.5% +53.4% 100% 100% +69.1%
≤30d 4 +52.9% +38.4% 100% 75% +64.8%
≤90d 47 -29.9% -36.5% 36% 28% +3.7%
all 255 -16.3% -24.3% 45% 42% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 42% -6.1%
10% -31.5% 38% -15.1%
15% -38.1% 33% -23.3%
20% -44.2% 26% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$572) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$572 vs −$413 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$1,888
Realized+$8,536
Unrealized+$730
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses115 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)255 / 261
History coverage601d
Avg bet$933
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 45¢ $102 $765 +$663 (+650%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 67¢ 66¢ $502 $491 −$11 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $103 $154 +$52 (+50%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$47 +47%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,424 +$1,643 +115%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 17 $892 +$411 +46%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 24 $147 +$5 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $364 −$362 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $332 +$110 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $222 −$222 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $350 +$48 +14%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $80 −$60 -75%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 20 $572 −$100 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $20 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 17 $310 +$80 +26%
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Apr 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Apr 14 $20 −$18 -92%
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026? Apr 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? Apr 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026? Apr 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 12 $347 +$35 +10%
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026? Apr 11 $4 +$3 +61%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Apr 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026? Apr 10 $33 −$23 -70%
Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $46 −$19 -41%
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $37 +$135 +362%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5 Apr 09 $108 +$43 +40%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $99 +$9 +9%
Spread: Warriors (-15.5) Apr 08 $21 +$24 +114%
Spread: Thunder (-18.5) Apr 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 06 $272 +$104 +38%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 04 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March? Mar 24 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Mar 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Feb 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Jan 30 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Trump say "TikTok" this week? (October 27 - November 2) Jan 30 $119 +$181 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $502 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $102 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3,067 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $52 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $413 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $294 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $17 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $432 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $203 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $13 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $28 28d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $37 28d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $87 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $162 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 44d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 51d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $332 61d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 57¢ $38 61d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 57¢ $16 61d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 57¢ $93 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $222 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $398 62d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 8¢ $20 62d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $119 62d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 33¢ $66 62d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 28¢ $12 63d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 28¢ $2 63d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $209 63d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $144 63d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $532 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,887.57 · official $1,887.69 (match) · 1753 history records