trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 12% | -12.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 12% | -12.7% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -10.3% | -18.9% | 53% | 6% | -13.1% |
| all | 18 | -5.7% | -14.7% | 56% | 11% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.7% | 11% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 6% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 6% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 6% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $180 | $180 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? | Yes | 94¢ | 96¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato | Ksenia Zaytseva | 95¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 19 | $61 | −$5 | -9% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 19 | $41 | −$4 | -10% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 19 | $41 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $261 | −$18 | -7% |
| KBO: SSG Landers vs. Doosan Bears | Jun 19 | $5 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 19 | $220 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? | Jun 19 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 15? | May 09 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be 80°F or higher on April 15? | May 09 | $30 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | May 09 | $235 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 14 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Apr 14 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 26? | Apr 14 | $66 | +$4 | +6% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Apr 14 | $200 | +$7 | +3% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? | Mar 26 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? | Mar 11 | $50 | +$36 | +72% |