Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x49d3…b619 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$153 (-1%) realized +$56 · open −$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$318
7 days+$259
14 days+$1,493
30 days+$1,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,608
other 28% +$133
sports 9% +$1,028
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +129.8% +107.9% 57% 43% +0.3%
≤30d 22 +119.7% +98.8% 68% 55% +32.8%
≤90d 29 +76.4% +59.6% 59% 48% +15.8%
all 84 +12.6% +1.9% 48% 44% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 44% -11.9%
10% -7.9% 42% -20.4%
15% -16.8% 38% -28.1%
20% -24.9% 35% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$103 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$962
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)84 / 92
History coverage98d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $281 +$81 (+41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $200 $132 −$68 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $110 −$90 (-45%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 56¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $71 $12 −$59 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$24 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $306 +$103 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$75 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $730 +$197 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $277 −$148 -53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $202 −$108 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 +$72 +48%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $107 +$38 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $158 +$1,025 +648%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $79 −$77 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 29 $57 −$55 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 29 $27 +$17 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 28 $117 −$115 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$19 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$149 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$116 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$113 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$96 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 19 $100 +$147 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 19 $100 +$73 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 19 $195 +$164 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 19 $100 +$95 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 19 $200 −$197 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 18 $200 −$199 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 16 $335 −$332 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 43¢ $409 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $306 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $303 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 18¢ $110 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $102 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $103 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 61¢ $177 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $102 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $926 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $499 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $130 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $129 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $277 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 32¢ $94 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $202 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $225 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.37 · official $962.37 (match) · 179 history records