Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ce…c3b5 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$154 (+3%) realized +$150 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%58W / 53L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$163
14 days+$162
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$13
other 24% +$21
sports 21% +$122
world 14% +$197
weather 5% −$39
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 59% 43% -4.5%
≤30d 108 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 39% -3.3%
≤90d 111 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 38% -3.3%
all 111 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 38% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -3.3%
10% -21.6% 21% -12.6%
15% -29.2% 14% -21.0%
20% -36.1% 14% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses58 / 53
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage31d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $136 $137 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 75¢ 92¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? No 74¢ 68¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $482 +$70 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $248 +$167 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$14 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 +$37 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 −$2 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$5 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $37 +$33 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$17 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 +$15 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $37 +$33 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $282 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $36 −$30 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $98 +$5 +5%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $59 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$6 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 +$21 +59%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $54 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$10 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$14 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $14 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $78 −$55 -71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $16 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $415 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $482 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $78 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $32 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $248 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $23 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $22 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.41 · official $259.10 (match) · 898 history records