Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ca…bb0f crypto 616 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized −$18 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%421W / 183L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$81
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$167
tech 42% +$378
world 11% −$854
politics 4% +$444
other 1% −$91
weather 0% −$19
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 30% -9.9%
≤30d 83 -26.9% -33.8% 53% 33% -46.5%
≤90d 226 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 46% -19.5%
all 604 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 35% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 35% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 28% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 26% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 24% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses421 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)604 / 616
History coverage214d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $208 $317 +$109 (+52%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +7%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $101 −$71 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.68 · official $416.68 (match) · 2050 history records