Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49c4…db5b
weather · 940 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,000 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$842 · open −$171
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$383
Realized−$842
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses302 / 606
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions32
Markets (closed)908 / 940
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day124.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 908 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days−$660
14 days−$1,252
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? No 53¢ 96¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? No 58¢ 72¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 47¢ 68¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 56¢ 68¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 46¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? No 60¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 46¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? No 55¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? No 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 45¢ 40¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 54¢ 46¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? No 53¢ 29¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? No 51¢ 43¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 58¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster 34¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 42¢ 12¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 41¢ 47¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? No 59¢ 8¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? No 60¢ 12¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 48¢ 5¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 35¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $42 +$39 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$15 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$179 +856%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$18 +88%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$45 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$22 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $138 −$54 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$31 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$28 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$16 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $142 +$82 +58%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$17 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 76% −$1,040
sports 24% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 49¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 41¢ $4 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 35¢ $2 27m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $7 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 66¢ $26 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $3 48m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 53¢ $21 54m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $26 56m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 84¢ $19 57m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $38 57m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 43¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 43¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 28¢ $10 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $20 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 43% -15.1%
≤30d 908 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -14.6%
≤90d 908 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -14.6%
all 908 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 33% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 32% -22.8%
15% -32.5% 31% -30.2%
20% -39.1% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.08 · official $383.45 (match) · 3500 history records