Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49c4…bf77 other 362 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33,868 (-21%) realized −$31,645 · open −$2,223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate83%161W / 34L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$75,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$5,254
sports 16% +$24,025
crypto 14% −$3,879
world 11% +$80
politics 4% +$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +17.4% +6.2% 89% 48% -4.4%
≤30d 141 +12.1% +1.5% 84% 39% -16.1%
≤90d 195 +63.0% +47.5% 83% 46% -5.4%
all 195 +63.0% +47.5% 83% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.5% 46% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +33.4% 31% -14.5%
15% +20.5% 19% -22.7%
20% +8.7% 16% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +102% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$531 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$75,922
Realized−$31,645
Unrealized−$2,223
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses161 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions198
Markets (closed)195 / 362
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$453
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 198 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $10,148 $10,088 −$60 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $5,579 $8,322 +$2,743 (+49%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $4,530 $4,940 +$409 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $6,685 $4,842 −$1,843 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,314 $3,860 −$454 (-11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $3,563 $3,299 −$264 (-7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,029 $3,093 +$65 (+2%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $2,230 $2,483 +$252 (+11%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 82¢ $1,516 $1,874 +$358 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2,479 $1,660 −$819 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,285 $1,330 +$45 (+4%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,191 $1,174 −$17 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1,085 $1,106 +$21 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 52¢ $381 $937 +$556 (+146%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 94¢ $822 $876 +$54 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $778 $807 +$29 (+4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $796 $752 −$44 (-6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 76¢ 70¢ $708 $658 −$50 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $802 $646 −$156 (-19%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $642 $635 −$7 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $575 $612 +$37 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $586 $603 +$17 (+3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $538 $571 +$34 (+6%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 51¢ $526 $568 +$42 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $645 $518 −$127 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $624 −$323 -52%
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 $0 +1%
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $291 −$12 -4%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 28 $302 −$3 -1%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $25 +$28 +109%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England Jun 28 $100 +$66 +66%
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 28 $69 +$22 +32%
Will Iran reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $200 +$1 +0%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 28 $572 +$47 +8%
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 28 $30 +$10 +33%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $479 +$121 +25%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $154 +$46 +30%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$91 +91%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $58 $0 +1%
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $433 +$19 +4%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $537 +$69 +13%
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $671 +$61 +9%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $186 +$42 +23%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $413 +$9 +2%
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S Jun 27 $52 +$17 +33%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 27 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $571 +$24 +4%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $706 +$218 +31%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $19 +$11 +59%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $200 +$154 +77%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $253 +$202 +80%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $802 +$20 +2%
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 26 $321 +$36 +11%
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 26 $113 −$38 -34%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $387 +$40 +10%
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 26 $83 +$17 +20%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $914 +$50 +6%
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $54 +$14 +26%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $33 +$6 +17%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $347 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $195 +$20 +10%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $26 +$4 +18%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $4,489 −$1,109 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Christian Pulisic score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $2 2m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 41m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 41m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $53 41m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 41m
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $44 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 2h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $259 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $301 3h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $74 3h
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $50 4h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $49 4h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 6h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $3 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $198 7h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 8h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $162 11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $60 11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 12h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $148 12h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 90¢ $90 13h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $234 13h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $237 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,922.28 · official $75,922.97 (match) · 3500 history records