Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49be…ae99 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1
crypto 17% +$39
sports 14% −$69
weather 9% +$2
world 8% −$1
tech 6% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 5% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 4% -9.8%
all 74 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 41
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage90d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 17 $75 $0 +1%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4? May 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30? Apr 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 29 $2 +$3 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28 Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 24? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 22 $12 +$2 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $119 −$107 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $119 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 21 $88 +$33 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 20 $169 +$5 +3%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $81 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 17? Apr 19 $364 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $81 $0 -0%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $283 $0 +0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $274 +$5 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $555 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 14 $274 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 14 $274 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 14 $269 +$5 +2%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 19h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 9d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $38 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $38 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $38 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $37 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 19d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 20d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 20d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.52 · official $39.52 (match) · 201 history records