trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $103 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $95 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $33 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 09 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 08 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $114 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 05 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Fartcoin dip to $0.85 before June? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 31 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? | Mar 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | Mar 28 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| OpenSea airdrop before April? | Mar 24 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke | Mar 22 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan | Mar 21 | $15 | +$18 | +127% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 27% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 25 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 56% | 4% | -8.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 4% | -8.0% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 4% | -16.8% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 4% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -32.5% | 4% | -32.2% |