Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49b7…b0b3 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$474 (-4%) realized −$505 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$87
14 days−$1,291
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$814
crypto 14% −$1,588
other 6% +$74
world 5% −$356
politics 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 43% -24.7%
≤90d 37 -17.2% -25.1% 41% 41% -24.6%
all 37 -17.2% -25.1% 41% 41% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 41% -24.6%
10% -32.3% 35% -31.8%
15% -38.8% 24% -38.4%
20% -44.8% 19% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$109 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$505
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions10
Markets (closed)37 / 47
History coverage72d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $120 −$47 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $61 −$10 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$47 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 +$26 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $371 +$53 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6,783 +$33 +0%
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $473 +$107 +23%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 05 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $380 +$110 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $200 +$180 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,776 −$1,589 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $101 +$27 +27%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 02 $204 +$177 +87%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $103 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $207 +$295 +142%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $111 −$6 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $100 +$113 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $369 −$291 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $77 −$8 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $98 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $73 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 1¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 59¢ $108 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $51 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $166 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 1¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $101 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $371 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.84 · official $304.88 (match) · 103 history records