Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x49b6…c813 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-17%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$414
7 days+$414
14 days+$360
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$255
economics 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +172.1% +146.1% 100% 100% +125.7%
≤30d 4 +36.0% +23.1% 50% 50% +58.7%
≤90d 9 +24.5% +12.6% 56% 56% +37.1%
all 11 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 45% +36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 45% +36.6%
10% -16.7% 45% +23.5%
15% -24.7% 45% +11.6%
20% -32.1% 45% +0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$32 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage96d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $210 +$270 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $67 +$144 +216%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $480 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $210 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $210 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $67 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $55 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $64 27d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $43 35d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $40 36d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $20 36d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 36d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 41¢ $31 40d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs SELL FaZe 100¢ $21 49d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY FaZe 48¢ $10 50d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 83d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records