Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49b6…170c other 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$61,658 (+15%) realized +$40,283 · open +$21,375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%291W / 181L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$832per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$45,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 194d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$15,971
politics 18% −$300
world 15% +$4,104
sports 12% −$6,433
culture 9% +$5,382
crypto 2% +$461
economics 1% +$1,513
tech 0% +$34
finance 0% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +94.2% +75.7% 41% 26% -4.3%
≤30d 80 +67.6% +51.6% 54% 31% +9.7%
≤90d 229 +30.3% +17.9% 51% 28% -9.6%
all 472 +14.9% +4.0% 62% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 27% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 19% -18.2%
15% -15.1% 15% -26.1%
20% -23.4% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$962) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$361 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$45,578
Realized+$40,283
Unrealized+$21,375
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses291 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions35
Markets (closed)472 / 507
History coverage194d ⚠
Avg bet$832
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 74¢ $8,571 $26,245 +$17,674 (+206%)
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,820 $4,954 +$134 (+3%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 76¢ $2,697 $4,848 +$2,151 (+80%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 67¢ $2,180 $2,277 +$97 (+4%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,722 $1,848 +$126 (+7%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 36¢ 92¢ $357 $900 +$543 (+152%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $850 $899 +$49 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $631 $642 +$11 (+2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $320 $546 +$225 (+70%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $486 $498 +$11 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 17¢ 68¢ $117 $476 +$360 (+309%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $530 $289 −$241 (-45%)
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? No 4¢ 43¢ $17 $178 +$161 (+967%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $69 $82 +$13 (+19%)
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 29¢ 64¢ $36 $81 +$44 (+121%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $73 $65 −$8 (-10%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $42 $52 +$10 (+25%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 4¢ 4¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-7%)
Will Austria participate in Eurovision 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+17%)
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? No 40¢ 29¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-27%)
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? No 16¢ 24¢ $23 $35 +$12 (+54%)
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? No 4¢ 7¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+62%)
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? No 3¢ 5¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+44%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 1¢ 8¢ $4 $20 +$17 (+459%)
Will Jhon Córdoba be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $48 $20 −$28 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $58 +$191 +330%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $238 +$22 +9%
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 15? Jun 15 $618 −$12 -2%
Will Brandon Mechele be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Nathan Ngoy be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Leandro Trossard be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $67 +$71 +106%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $53 +$12 +22%
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $76 +$13 +17%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $110 +$10 +10%
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $314 +$2 +1%
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Daichi Kamada be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 +$198 +924%
Will Junya Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $24 +$233 +966%
Will Daizen Maeda be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $29 +$424 +1471%
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $387 +$11 +3%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Arda Güler: 4+ shots Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$25 +1845%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,272 −$186 -15%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $976 +$198 +20%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 08 $291 +$94 +32%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $6,530 +$1,469 +22%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $920 +$78 +8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $2,199 −$219 -10%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $66 +$316 +482%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $53 +$44 +84%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $134 +$11 +8%
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $207 +$43 +21%
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $850 +$225 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 40¢ $49 1h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 16¢ $23 1h
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $18 1h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $17 1h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $17 1h
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $5 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 1¢ $4 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $8 1h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 14¢ $37 6h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $13 8h
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $6 8h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 6¢ $10 8h
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $21 8h
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $4 8h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 8h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 92¢ $33 16h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 92¢ $53 17h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 92¢ $17 20h
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? BUY No 92¢ $12 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 31h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $289 32h
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 32h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 80¢ $160 33h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 80¢ $67 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,578.12 · official $45,677.80 (match) · 3500 history records