Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
49 0x49b2…4aee other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$406 (+1%) realized −$136 · open +$542
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%121W / 116L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days−$18
14 days−$52
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$257
sports 13% −$147
world 10% +$690
politics 3% −$468
tech 2% +$245
crypto 1% +$167
economics 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.0% -7.7% 36% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 34 +2.2% -7.6% 41% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 77 +12.8% +2.0% 51% 48% -1.7%
all 237 +12.5% +1.8% 51% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 43% -10.2%
10% -7.9% 38% -18.8%
15% -16.8% 35% -26.6%
20% -25.0% 30% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$164 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$3,236
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$542
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses121 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions16
Markets (closed)237 / 253
History coverage239d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 69¢ 100¢ $578 $837 +$259 (+45%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $566 $628 +$62 (+11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 54¢ $500 $546 +$46 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $200 $353 +$153 (+77%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $300 $319 +$19 (+6%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $105 +$55 +52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$176 +344%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $77 +$249 +325%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $238 −$234 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$138 +275%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $187 +$89 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $702 −$700 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 +$382 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$424 +276%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $132 −$129 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $346 −$102 -29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $215 +$27 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $151 +$63 +42%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $151 −$149 -99%
Will CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming end in a draw? May 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Racing Club vs. Club Independiente Petrolero end in a draw? May 27 $99 −$97 -97%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $44 +$39 +90%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $405 +$280 +69%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $103 −$101 -98%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $366 +$1,569 +429%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $215 +$112 +52%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $201 +$49 +24%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central vs. Racing Club end in a draw? May 16 $204 +$511 +250%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $361 −$357 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-13? May 11 $282 −$277 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $305 +$409 +134%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $271 +$273 +101%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $457 −$450 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 09 $648 +$16 +2%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $212 −$209 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $173 +$103 +60%
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-06? May 05 $14 +$5 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 12h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $76 35h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 35h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $77 35h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $258 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $238 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $6 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $50 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $187 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,235.99 · official $3,235.99 (match) · 940 history records