Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x49b2…5d08 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+15%) realized +$175 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$107
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.9% +13.9% 79% 71% +1.8%
≤30d 14 +25.9% +13.9% 79% 71% +1.8%
≤90d 14 +25.9% +13.9% 79% 71% +1.8%
all 14 +25.9% +13.9% 79% 71% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 71% +1.8%
10% +3.0% 71% -7.9%
15% -7.0% 50% -16.8%
20% -16.1% 36% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$67 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $105 +$49 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $126 +$34 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$10 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 +$53 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$31 +97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$29 +136%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$24 +115%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$36 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$21 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $157 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $126 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $79 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $74 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $79 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.29 · official $152.32 (match) · 30 history records