Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x49b1…fd38 other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,088 (-3%) realized −$1,188 · open +$100
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%129W / 47L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$51
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$394
other 41% −$331
sports 6% −$225
politics 5% −$942
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.4% -16.2% 82% 32% -10.8%
≤30d 41 -3.6% -12.8% 76% 39% -9.6%
≤90d 167 -8.5% -17.3% 72% 37% -13.4%
all 176 -7.4% -16.2% 73% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -12.6%
10% -24.2% 12% -21.0%
15% -31.5% 6% -28.6%
20% -38.2% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$62 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$2,163
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses129 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)176 / 183
History coverage97d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $270 $282 +$12 (+4%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $250 $273 +$23 (+9%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 98¢ $250 $272 +$22 (+9%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $257 $260 +$3 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $186 $198 +$12 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$7 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $231 +$22 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $120 +$16 +13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $175 +$9 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$72 -72%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $190 +$8 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$31 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $137 −$66 -49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $299 +$11 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $571 +$36 +6%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +212%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$66 -66%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $179 −$29 -16%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $7 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,770 +$28 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $547 +$59 +11%
Villarreal CF leading at halftime? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $154 +$77 +50%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $197 +$33 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $201 +$41 +21%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$21 +21%
VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime? May 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $393 −$180 -46%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $196 +$14 +7%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $100 −$68 -68%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $100 +$33 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $422 +$45 +11%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 +$16 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $88 +$12 +14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$44 -44%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $161 +$51 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $4 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $46 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $45 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $114 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $253 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $300 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $300 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $185 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $175 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $201 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $90 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $100 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $101 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $17 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $53 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $87 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $13 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $73 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,162.95 · official $2,162.95 (match) · 793 history records