Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49a9…d635 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate86%24W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$11
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$22
weather 1% +$2
sports 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 0% -9.1%
all 28 -6.2% -15.1% 86% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -9.2%
10% -23.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -30.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses24 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage104d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $541 $541 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $537 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $535 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $528 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $528 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $517 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $502 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 22? Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 18? Mar 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16? Mar 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: OG vs GRINGOS (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 14 $20 −$9 -44%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group A Mar 13 $25 +$2 +10%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate from Missis Mar 11 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $379 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $162 12h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $172 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $166 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $199 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $308 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $125 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $528 11d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $528 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $311 18d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 18d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $529 22d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $516 25d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $502 28d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $495 33d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 35d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 47d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes $0 47d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes $1 50d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.41 · official $541.41 (match) · 86 history records