Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

49 0x49a8…ce89 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+13%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-15.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-6.2%	-15.2%	67%	67%	+18.6%
≤30d	3	-6.2%	-15.2%	67%	67%	+18.6%
≤90d	3	-6.2%	-15.2%	67%	67%	+18.6%
all	3	-6.2%	-15.2%	67%	67%	+18.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.2%	67%	+18.6%
10%	-23.3%	67%	+7.2%
15%	-30.7%	67%	-3.1%
20%	-37.5%	0%	-12.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.18 per $1 lost it wins $7.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$63

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	No	84¢	84¢	$63	$63	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$40	+$15	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	+$1	+44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	84¢	$63	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$40	46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$2	2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.38 · official $63.38 (match) · 6 history records