Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x49a7…c386 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$422 (-25%) realized −$505 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$426
14 days−$937
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$328
other 42% −$670
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -77.3%
≤30d 14 -44.6% -49.9% 21% 14% -40.6%
≤90d 14 -44.6% -49.9% 21% 14% -40.6%
all 14 -44.6% -49.9% 21% 14% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.9% 14% -40.6%
10% -54.7% 14% -46.3%
15% -59.1% 14% -51.5%
20% -63.1% 14% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$90 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$505
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage43d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 42¢ 54¢ $310 $392 +$83 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$51 +126%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$8 -29%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $147 −$144 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$73 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 05 $443 −$443 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $205 +$494 +241%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $90 53m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 63¢ $224 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $92 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $21 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 17h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $147 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $11 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 24¢ $95 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 25¢ $99 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 34¢ $107 19d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 55¢ $24 23d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 57¢ $25 23d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $96 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $143 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.47 · official $399.80 · 35 history records