Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49a7…d8aa crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-17%) realized −$53 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$23
crypto 44% −$24
politics 4% −$15
sports 2% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.8% -29.2% 27% 27% -12.5%
≤30d 55 -32.6% -39.0% 31% 31% -40.0%
≤90d 55 -32.6% -39.0% 31% 31% -40.0%
all 58 -27.9% -34.8% 34% 34% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 34% -29.3%
10% -41.0% 34% -36.0%
15% -46.7% 33% -42.2%
20% -51.9% 31% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage191d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 +$13 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 +$18 +433%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$18 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 15h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.94 · official $34.94 (match) · 111 history records