Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x49a4…5b01 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$39
14 days+$36
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$18
sports 6% +$41
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+74.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +130.6% +108.6% 67% 67% +31.1%
≤30d 6 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +34.1%
≤90d 6 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +34.1%
all 6 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.5% 50% +34.1%
10% +57.8% 50% +21.3%
15% +42.6% 50% +9.6%
20% +28.6% 50% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage19d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $17 +$56 +324%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $19 +$32 +167%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$41 +366%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $51 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $19 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 39¢ $53 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 8¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.20 · official $73.20 (match) · 10 history records