Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49a3…b013 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$763 (-2%) realized −$621 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$595
14 days−$1,350
30 days−$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$79
sports 6% −$1,593
other 5% +$385
world 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 40% -38.7%
≤30d 12 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -44.0%
≤90d 46 -19.8% -27.4% 35% 35% -10.6%
all 91 -3.3% -12.5% 41% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -14.3%
10% -20.9% 38% -22.5%
15% -28.5% 32% -30.0%
20% -35.5% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$244 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$621
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage116d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $100 $11 −$89 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $397 −$390 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $356 −$350 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $450 +$304 +68%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $401 −$305 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $253 +$147 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $499 +$249 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$299 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $257 +$172 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $93 +$171 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 26 $235 −$227 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $1,822 −$662 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 22 $700 −$678 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $2,498 −$17 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 22 $308 +$225 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $608 +$394 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $250 +$86 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $315 +$173 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 03 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 03 $260 −$249 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 03 $92 +$114 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 03 $77 +$71 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 03 $96 −$95 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 03 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 03 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 02 $377 −$377 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 02 $600 −$600 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $201 −$116 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $58 −$48 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 02 $32 +$27 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 31 $800 +$2,220 +278%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 31 $999 −$999 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 31 $300 +$1,917 +639%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 18 $270 +$107 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 18 $144 +$126 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 18 $74 +$80 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $496 −$21 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $397 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $356 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $97 6d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 12¢ $96 6d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $401 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $400 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $499 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $203 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $302 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $257 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $40 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $85 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.94 · official $73.81 · 741 history records