Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49a0…685a sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized −$82 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$32
14 days−$13
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$37
politics 36% +$46
weather 21% −$1
sports 3% −$6
world 2% +$3
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.2% +7.9% 20% 20% +2.3%
≤30d 19 +5.1% -4.9% 26% 21% -6.5%
≤90d 38 -3.3% -12.5% 32% 26% -10.1%
all 71 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 32% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 31% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage174d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ $0 $48 +$48 (+0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ $0 $42 +$42 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$48 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $72 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $88 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$46 -89%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $52 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $68 +$27 +40%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $58 −$2 -4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 05 $56 +$7 +12%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$18 +49%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $71 −$32 -45%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $70 −$1 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Apr 18 $1 $0 -36%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 18 $9 +$5 +57%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Tamara Korpatsch vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 18 $13 +$7 +57%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 09 $10 +$4 +47%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +73%
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Creighton Bluejays Apr 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Apr 04 $9 +$6 +67%
Senators vs. Rangers Apr 04 $13 +$7 +59%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 23 $9 +$5 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 23 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $8 −$8 -100%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 16 $12 −$12 -100%
National Cricket League, Women: South Australian Scorpions vs New Sout Mar 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 16 $13 +$6 +45%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 13 $19 +$9 +47%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Mar 09 $27 −$27 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Mar 03 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 03 $2 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $24 2d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $6 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $43 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $88 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $50 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $41 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $9 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $67 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $39 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $30 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.95 · official $89.95 (match) · 297 history records