Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49a0…29ac sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$81 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%34W / 34L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$118
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$63
politics 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 38% -26.4%
≤30d 16 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 38% -26.4%
≤90d 16 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 38% -26.4%
all 68 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 47% -7.1%
10% -17.6% 46% -16.0%
15% -25.5% 44% -24.1%
20% -32.8% 41% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$29 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses34 / 34
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage227d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 38¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 +$32 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 +$22 +55%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$33 +33%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $41 +$43 +105%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Feb 13 $50 −$13 -26%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Feb 13 $40 −$11 -29%
Counter-Strike: ALLINNERS vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Pla Jan 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - World Cha Jan 21 $10 +$10 +102%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ARCRED (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G Jan 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jan 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Brisbane International: Marketa Vondrousova vs Magdalena Frech Jan 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Udvardy vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jan 05 $30 +$23 +75%
Sramkova vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jan 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3) Dec 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs: 1H O/U 19.5 Dec 26 $20 +$22 +112%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Dec 25 $19 −$2 -8%
Spread: Louisville (-8.5) Dec 24 $20 +$24 +122%
Spread: Louisville (-9.5) Dec 24 $40 +$49 +122%
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. UCF Knights: O/U 159.5 Dec 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5 Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 43.5 Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 42.5 Dec 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 150.5 Dec 20 $50 +$61 +122%
Jackson State Tigers vs. Hampton Pirates: O/U 135.5 Dec 19 $60 +$65 +108%
Albany Great Danes vs. Yale Bulldogs: O/U 145.5 Dec 11 $50 +$50 +100%
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Dec 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 10 $50 +$32 +64%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Florida Gators: O/U 146.5 Dec 10 $50 +$50 +100%
Iona Gaels vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers: O/U 165.5 Dec 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 09 $47 +$21 +45%
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Dec 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Nuggets vs. Hawks Dec 06 $60 +$35 +59%
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5 Dec 05 $50 +$52 +104%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne Dec 05 $93 +$13 +14%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Dec 04 $37 +$51 +138%
Stonehill Skyhawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 131.5 Dec 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Flames vs. Predators Dec 03 $50 +$50 +100%
Utah vs. Sharks Dec 02 $27 +$40 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $31 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $41 4h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $41 21h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $51 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $41 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $31 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $51 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $31 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $40 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $51 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $50 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 7d
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 10d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Essex 48¢ $41 10d
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 42¢ $41 11d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 118d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $50 119d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 70¢ $40 135d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 68¢ $50 135d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL BIG Academy 50¢ $19 150d
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY BIG Academy 52¢ $20 150d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ARCRED (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G BUY ARCRED 97¢ $33 150d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - World Cha BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $10 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.10 · official $324.10 (match) · 182 history records