Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

49 0x499f…c6a0 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,185 (-61%) realized −$2,149 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$171per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$706

7 days−$1,568

14 days−$1,568

30 days−$1,905

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-64.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-53.0%	-57.5%	20%	20%	-70.8%
≤30d	17	-58.5%	-62.5%	18%	18%	-74.5%
≤90d	18	-60.8%	-64.6%	17%	17%	-76.8%
all	18	-60.8%	-64.6%	17%	17%	-76.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-64.6%	17%	-76.8%
10%	-68.0%	17%	-79.0%
15%	-71.1%	17%	-81.0%
20%	-73.9%	6%	-82.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -61% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$129 vs −$170 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.15 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage

Net worth$582

Realized−$2,149

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage73d

Avg bet$171

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$333	$310	−$23 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$246	$237	−$9 (-4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$40	$35	−$5 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$131	+$57	+43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$99	−$98	-98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$99	−$91	-92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$131	+$64	+48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$185	−$180	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$144	−$140	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$147	−$147	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$88	+$267	+303%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$239	−$235	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$208	−$203	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$97	−$95	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$281	−$274	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$201	−$195	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$201	−$198	-99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$205	−$200	-98%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	May 28	$142	−$137	-97%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 07	$262	−$262	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	22m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$188	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$8	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$99	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$99	3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$200	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$195	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$31	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$36	27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$203	28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$355	28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$44	29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$88	30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$45	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.05 · official $582.05 (match) · 60 history records