Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x499d…365e crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$50
politics 32% +$1
other 7% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.1% -15.0% 62% 50% -17.7%
≤30d 8 -6.1% -15.0% 62% 50% -17.7%
≤90d 11 -22.1% -29.6% 55% 36% -19.5%
all 61 -18.9% -26.6% 49% 28% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 28% -11.9%
10% -33.7% 28% -20.4%
15% -40.1% 28% -28.1%
20% -45.9% 26% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage546d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 03 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 11 $20 +$17 +87%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$24 +81%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 11 $20 +$16 +82%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 11 $20 +$17 +84%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$30 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$28 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$27 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 11 $50 +$43 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this Feb 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mamdani visit the White House by December 31? Dec 11 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 11 $108 +$104 +96%
Will Outdoor Boys post another video by November 30? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Canton launch a token in 2025? Nov 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 06 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $42 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $27 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16h
BNB Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 36d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 29¢ $2 44d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 44d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 54d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $30 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $54 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records