Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x499b…33be sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-14%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$49
other 28% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 42% -23.0%
≤30d 43 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 42% -23.0%
≤90d 43 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 42% -23.0%
all 43 +0.9% -8.7% 51% 42% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 42% -23.0%
10% -17.5% 30% -30.4%
15% -25.4% 23% -37.1%
20% -32.7% 21% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +59%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 $0 -13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +34%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +214%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +214%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$6 +95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -87%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$7 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $95 −$37 -38%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 13m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 50m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 1h
Morocco to win the second half? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $26 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY Leviatán Academy 18¢ $1 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $3 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 8¢ $5 34h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $14.78 (match) · 84 history records