Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4997…53d4 other 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 256L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$45
sports 21% −$21
politics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
tech 2% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 268 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage142d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $535 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $839 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $273 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $458 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $196 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $313 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $332 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $124 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 5m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 7h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 9h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 13h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 27h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 32h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 35h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $11 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1530 history records