Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
49 0x4994…3e36 sports 572 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,370 (+57%) realized +$14,277 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%285W / 279L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$600est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$5,892
14 days+$8,945
30 days+$12,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$14,125
other 1% −$78
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -39.1% -44.9% 23% 17% +166.8%
≤30d 111 +12.3% +1.6% 49% 41% +54.2%
≤90d 537 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 38% +42.1%
all 564 +12.1% +1.4% 51% 38% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 38% +41.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 31% +28.3%
15% -17.1% 26% +15.9%
20% -25.3% 21% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$4 · ×13.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.65 per $1 lost it wins $13.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$14,277
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses285 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$600
Open positions1
Markets (closed)564 / 572
History coverage96d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Wampirki 43¢ 48¢ $671 $764 +$93 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $501 +$7 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 25 $93 +$109 +116%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $166 +$12 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $114 −$4 -4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$7 -36%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $29 −$27 -94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $15 +$12 +75%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - FRAGgg Group B Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $3 $0 -12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$12 +92%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $16 −$14 -84%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $1,875 +$6,053 +323%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $6 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $7 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$22 -91%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $172 +$14 +8%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$18 +88%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $20 +$22 +111%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $4 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $425 +$51 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 −$2 -14%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$3 -76%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$3 +128%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 −$7 -7%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $1,066 +$171 +16%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $1,136 +$57 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $36 −$20 -56%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $11 −$3 -29%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 45¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 45¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 44¢ $45 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 43¢ $40 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 45¢ $65 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $57 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $64 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $57 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $57 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $43 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $19 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 42¢ $177 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 25¢ $10 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2¢ $2 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 3¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL WBT 27¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL WBT 32¢ $38 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL WBT 39¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL WBT 41¢ $463 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Wampirki 38¢ $9 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY WBT 38¢ $499 34h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY WBT 31¢ $2 35h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $54 37h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe SELL Carstensz 100¢ $202 40h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $179 41h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 93¢ $166 41h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 45¢ $93 42h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Honvéd 1¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Honvéd 1¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 14¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.23 · official $774.01 · 2138 history records