Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4993…2511 sports 1134 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$159 (-2%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%631W / 499L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$31
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$53
other 32% −$73
world 8% +$50
politics 5% +$213
crypto 1% +$7
finance 1% −$5
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -4.0% -13.2% 56% 27% -13.0%
≤30d 138 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 29% -9.0%
≤90d 1130 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 26% -7.0%
all 1130 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 26% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 26% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 14% -15.9%
15% -24.2% 12% -24.0%
20% -31.6% 10% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses631 / 499
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1130 / 1134
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +31%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$3 -20%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$14 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $58 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $9 −$2 -21%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 48¢ $6 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Kamil Majchrzak 24¢ $2 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 77¢ $5 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 69¢ $4 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $3 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 56¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $4 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $4 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL No 37¢ $3 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $5 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.59 · official $24.59 (match) · 3500 history records