Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4992…9cd4 world 314 markets active 13h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,544 (+2%) realized +$947 · open +$597
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%153W / 136L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$124
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1,101
politics 16% −$112
other 14% +$41
finance 4% +$349
sports 2% +$134
economics 2% +$37
tech 1% −$62
crypto 1% +$49
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +23.1% +11.4% 100% 67% +11.5%
≤90d 45 +6.2% -3.9% 69% 47% +1.2%
all 289 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 30% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 30% -8.2%
10% -19.3% 18% -17.0%
15% -27.1% 12% -25.0%
20% -34.3% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$6,630
Realized+$947
Unrealized+$597
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses153 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)289 / 314
History coverage246d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $869 $943 +$74 (+9%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $685 $743 +$58 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $455 $693 +$238 (+52%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 91¢ $572 $637 +$65 (+11%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $500 $582 +$82 (+16%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $510 $555 +$45 (+9%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $460 $504 +$44 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 74¢ 100¢ $259 $349 +$90 (+35%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 90¢ 83¢ $360 $332 −$28 (-8%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 80¢ $242 $322 +$80 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 52¢ $285 $257 −$27 (-10%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $196 $128 −$68 (-35%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $108 $107 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $135 $102 −$32 (-24%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $86 $71 −$15 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $33 $59 +$26 (+76%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $41 +$5 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $4 −$26 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $586 +$124 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $250 +$10 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $285 +$126 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $400 +$6 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 18 $102 +$19 +18%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $206 +$116 +56%
ECB rate hike in 2026? May 13 $330 +$28 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 12 $190 +$38 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 12 $802 +$29 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $384 +$136 +35%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $370 +$133 +36%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 04 $388 +$62 +16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $67 +$36 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $342 +$89 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $250 +$59 +24%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Apr 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Apr 20 $159 −$17 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,349 −$20 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $90 +$32 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $1,230 +$121 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 17 $250 −$156 -62%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 17 $1,232 +$504 +41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $670 +$20 +3%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 17 $142 +$78 +55%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Apr 06 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $250 +$49 +20%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? Apr 01 $941 +$59 +6%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Apr 01 $249 +$51 +20%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $223 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $695 +$236 +34%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $250 +$99 +40%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $681 +$29 +4%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Mar 29 $290 −$90 -31%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 26 $400 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $141 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $162 +$8 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 25 $24 −$10 -42%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Mar 22 $360 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Mar 21 $163 −$61 -37%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 18 $405 +$20 +5%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $34 −$17 -48%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $574 +$49 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $85 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $200 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $260 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $75 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $410 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $406 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 53¢ $121 35d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $323 40d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $79 40d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $50 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 91¢ $228 41d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $51 41d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $78 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $94 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $16 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $10 41d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $100 41d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $53 41d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 41d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $152 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $400 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $285 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,629.84 · official $6,629.86 (match) · 1575 history records