Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

49 0x4990…2b83 other 8 markets active 18h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$2 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-23.8%	-31.0%	33%	33%	-30.7%
≤30d	3	-23.8%	-31.0%	33%	33%	-30.7%
≤90d	3	-23.8%	-31.0%	33%	33%	-30.7%
all	3	-23.8%	-31.0%	33%	33%	-30.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.0%	33%	-30.7%
10%	-37.6%	33%	-37.3%
15%	-43.7%	33%	-43.4%
20%	-49.2%	33%	-48.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	13¢	19¢	$4	$6	+$2 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-13%)
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	+$3	+129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	17h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	41h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$2	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.06 · official $16.06 (match) · 10 history records