Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x498e…59ae crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 42% -25.4%
≤30d 12 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 12 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 42% -25.4%
all 12 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 42% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 42% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 25% -32.5%
15% -36.3% 0% -39.0%
20% -42.5% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records