Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x498d…c0f5 crypto 32 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$27
other 29% −$50
crypto 19% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.7% +1.1% 53% 53% +1.0%
≤30d 29 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 38% -14.1%
≤90d 29 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 38% -14.1%
all 29 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 38% -14.1%
10% -27.9% 38% -22.3%
15% -34.9% 38% -29.8%
20% -41.3% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 51¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will A.J. Ellis be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $28 +$36 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Silva vs. Donski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $25 −$22 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 32h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $31 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $41 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $30 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $31 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 7d
Will A.J. Ellis be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phil BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Silva vs. Donski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet SELL Nick Kyrgios 100¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Nick Kyrgios 93¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.41 · official $53.61 (match) · 58 history records