Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x498b…656a sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-5%) realized −$46 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$67
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$25
other 6% −$48
crypto 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 49% -18.6%
≤30d 49 -6.1% -15.1% 55% 53% -15.5%
≤90d 49 -6.1% -15.1% 55% 53% -15.5%
all 49 -6.1% -15.1% 55% 53% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 53% -15.5%
10% -23.2% 53% -23.6%
15% -30.6% 49% -31.0%
20% -37.4% 43% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$17 +83%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$15 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 +$5 +26%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $21 +$9 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +93%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 +$12 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 +$7 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$11 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +104%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 +$8 +71%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $11 12h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 13h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $20 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $21 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 33h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $21 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $21 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $22 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $21 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.25 · official $177.25 (match) · 93 history records