Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4989…983e weather 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+16%) realized +$271 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 38L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$255
14 days+$255
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$262
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 32% +4.6%
≤30d 63 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 32% +4.6%
≤90d 63 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 32% +4.6%
all 63 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 32% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 32% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 29% -5.4%
15% -38.3% 25% -14.5%
20% -44.3% 24% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$12 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 38
Open positions15
Markets (closed)63 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 96¢ $28 $72 +$44 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $42 $30 −$12 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $23 $12 −$11 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 17 $70 −$67 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$10 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$53 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$24 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $97 +$171 +176%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$10 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $45 +$89 +200%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $164 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$29 +211%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -84%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$23 +44%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 14 $17 −$12 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $206 +$28 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 +$118 +139%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$21 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 74¢ $22 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.66 · official $135.66 (match) · 493 history records