Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4988…d0f4 politics 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1
politics 30% $0
other 21% +$1
sports 5% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 0% -9.5%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage280d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 −$3 -6%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $43 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $25 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $14 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $37 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records