Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4986…bc2c politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 593d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$2
other 33% −$1
sports 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 18 -69.5% -72.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -75.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -77.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -79.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage593d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 24 $0 $0 -50%
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts US Senate Electi Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 30 $199 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Oct 30 $199 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House Oct 30 $200 $0 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 30 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 560d
Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 567d
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 567d
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 585d
Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts US Senate Electi BUY Yes 0¢ $0 585d
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 585d
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 585d
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 586d
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 586d
Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 586d
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 591d
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? SELL No 100¢ $199 593d
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? BUY No 100¢ $199 593d
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $199 593d
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $199 593d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House SELL No 99¢ $199 593d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House BUY No 99¢ $200 593d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $200 593d
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 593d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $200 593d
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 593d
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $200 593d
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $200 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.61 · official $212.61 (match) · 35 history records