Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4985…95e6 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$986 (-8%) realized −$985 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%52W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$8
politics 46% −$990
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -18.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -26.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -33.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$991 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,566
Realized−$985
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses52 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage618d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,472 $1,473 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $725 $723 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $370 $370 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 22 $516 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $718 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,328 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Feb 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Feb 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Feb 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 19 $3 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 05 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,472 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $725 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $370 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $718 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $516 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,328 4d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 108d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 108d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 123d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $5 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 215d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $6 215d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 215d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY No 100¢ $2 215d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 215d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $7 256d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 256d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $7 256d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $3 256d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 256d
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,565.92 · official $2,565.92 (match) · 120 history records