Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4980…ddcb world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%21W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
politics 27% $0
other 17% $0
sports 4% −$13
economics 4% $0
finance 2% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.7% -0.8% 40% 10% -7.7%
≤30d 27 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 4% -8.5%
≤90d 56 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 4% -9.0%
all 57 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage482d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 +$5 +98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $36 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $9 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $36 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $104 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 +$2 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $36 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $47 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $8 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $2 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $8 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $38 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.75 · official $44.18 (match) · 242 history records