Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x497b…a32a
weather · 90 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$140 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$140 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses44 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage342d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$60
14 days−$205
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Thunder 66¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Suns 48¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Cavaliers 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Cavaliers 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) 76ers 53¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $168 +$66 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 −$112 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $222 +$62 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 −$14 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $64 −$50 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$109 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$16 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 −$22 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 +$80 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$8 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$9 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +7%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $4 +$3 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $119 +$28 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$6 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $107 −$106 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $213 −$83 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $71 −$54 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 −$37 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $10 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 −$19 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $53 +$73 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 28 $56 −$56 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Apr 19 $133 −$131 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$244
weather 36% −$219
other 26% +$301
crypto 1% +$22
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $235 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 30% -14.0%
≤30d 46 -22.0% -29.5% 39% 26% -25.4%
≤90d 67 -26.6% -33.6% 40% 24% -32.1%
all 89 -15.2% -23.3% 49% 35% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 35% -11.8%
10% -30.7% 28% -20.3%
15% -37.4% 22% -28.0%
20% -43.5% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.58 · official $10.58 (match) · 495 history records