Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x497b…e49e world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 58L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$13
other 22% +$5
politics 16% −$3
sports 16% +$9
finance 1% −$16
tech 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 30 -2.7% -11.9% 40% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 46 -2.6% -11.8% 35% 2% -9.5%
all 103 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage457d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $215 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $148 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $292 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $226 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $153 −$26 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $393 +$11 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $384 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $174 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $240 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $269 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $183 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $301 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$1 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $277 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $179 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $174 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $28 +$7 +25%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $160 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $325 +$1 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $53 +$3 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $19 −$4 -20%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $52 −$6 -12%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $130 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $160 −$14 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $2,157 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $974 +$9 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $974 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $370 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $972 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $54 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $54 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $132 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $10 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $39 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $22 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $82 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $161 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $161 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $65 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $97 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $162 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $95 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $51 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $141 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.88 · official $30.52 · 436 history records