Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4978…0bbf world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 22% −$1
sports 13% +$1
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 30 +9.0% -1.4% 37% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 76 +3.4% -6.4% 30% 3% -9.5%
all 96 +0.7% -8.9% 32% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage545d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $66 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $131 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $95 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $72 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $33 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $18 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $62 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $32 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $25 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $34 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $13 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records