Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4978…956b other 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,084 (+82%) realized +$8,087 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%156W / 785L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$1,467
sports 2% −$98
politics 1% −$21
culture 0% −$27
crypto 0% −$18
world 0% +$31
finance 0% −$10
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -11.1% -19.6% 13% 13% -27.2%
≤30d 322 -16.4% -24.3% 13% 12% -25.4%
≤90d 617 -23.7% -31.0% 16% 16% -17.8%
all 941 -24.8% -32.0% 17% 16% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 16% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 14% -12.8%
15% -44.4% 13% -21.3%
20% -49.9% 12% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$10 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$8,087
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses156 / 785
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)941 / 686
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 8PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 16 $85 −$63 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Sunday? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or below on July Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 16 $9 −$17 -202%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 16 $126 +$104 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 16 $2 +$38 +1876%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +170%
Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Jun 16 $5 −$16 -315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$15 +1454%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 −$12 -1176%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 16 $2 −$7 -374%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 in November? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 16 $4 +$22 +559%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Appalachian State vs. James Madison Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 16 $2 +$10 +485%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +288%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 20, 5PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $10.79 (match) · 3500 history records