Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4978…ea9a crypto 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-8%) realized −$633 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%253W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day89.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$502
14 days−$470
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$560
sports 21% −$223
weather 3% +$3
other 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 45% -35.7%
≤30d 197 -10.9% -19.4% 65% 50% -21.3%
≤90d 467 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 45% -18.5%
all 467 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 45% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 45% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 25% -26.3%
15% -30.4% 18% -33.4%
20% -37.2% 13% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$633
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses253 / 214
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)467 / 475
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day89.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$10 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.18 · official $87.18 (match) · 3500 history records