Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x4977…8a40 weather 340 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%307W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 23% -9.7%
≤30d 73 +0.8% -8.8% 82% 15% -8.2%
≤90d 337 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 14% -9.2%
all 337 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 14% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses307 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)337 / 340
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 92¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 87¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.32 · official $4.31 · 754 history records