Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4977…d8ed other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,025 (+11%) realized +$1,025 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,089
7 days+$2,735
14 days+$2,003
30 days+$2,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,845
other 16% −$846
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 67% 67% +23.1%
≤30d 9 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 56% +10.9%
≤90d 9 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 56% +10.9%
all 18 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 39% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 39% +10.6%
10% -31.1% 28% +0.1%
15% -37.8% 22% -9.6%
20% -43.9% 17% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$88 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,025
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage95d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,019 +$1,048 +103%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +59%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3,026 +$1,150 +38%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,421 +$646 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $995 −$646 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$101 -51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 25 $6 $0 +7%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23? Mar 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? Mar 23 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $10 +$7 +75%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,067 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $11 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $103 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,176 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $3,026 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,068 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $3,421 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $349 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $995 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $98 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $199 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 90d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 90d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 92d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 93d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 93d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 93d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 93d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 94d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 94d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records