Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4977…0770 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$14
other 21% −$2
politics 19% +$1
sports 7% −$11
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 38% 12% -7.5%
≤30d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 57 +1.2% -8.4% 39% 5% -8.9%
all 84 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -21.4% 1% -17.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage485d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $27 $24 −$2 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $82 +$12 +15%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $115 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $33 +$4 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +35%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $48 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.64 · official $24.07 (match) · 306 history records