Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4977…8f8b tech 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 34% −$1
sports 33% $0
other 17% −$1
politics 16% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -5.9% -14.8% 56% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -5.9% -14.8% 56% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage81d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on April 21? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 21? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Mar 26 $849 −$1 -0%
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 Mar 26 $823 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $839 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $859 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $848 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2 Mar 26 $849 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$180 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 54d
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? SELL No 100¢ $848 80d
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY No 100¢ $667 80d
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY No 100¢ $182 80d
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 SELL Yes 99¢ $823 80d
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 BUY Yes 99¢ $823 80d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 80d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $839 80d
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $859 80d
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $596 80d
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 80d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $197 80d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $651 80d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $569 80d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 80d
Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2 SELL No 100¢ $237 80d
Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2 SELL No 100¢ $612 80d
Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2 BUY No 100¢ $632 80d
Will Payton Pritchard lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2 BUY No 100¢ $217 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.68 · official $4.68 (match) · 44 history records