Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4976…ee65 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 29% +$1
politics 12% −$2
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 41 -1.8% -11.2% 63% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0.18343036367193377% → late -3.3737269927503633% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage448d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $103K on May 27? May 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will 'Train to the End of the World' win Crunchyroll's Best Original A May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $4 $0 -14%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Apr 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $36 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $13 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $13 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $23 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 351d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 351d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 94¢ $1 354d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 382d
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? SELL No 99¢ $7 382d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.38 · official $35.38 (match) · 114 history records