Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4976…c4cc world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 24% $0
politics 18% +$1
sports 15% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 27% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 62 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 77 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage333d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 53¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $23 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $135 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 +$3 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $64 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $9 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 -9%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $155 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $29 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $64 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $21 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $7 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $29 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $33 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.64 · official $36.39 (match) · 293 history records